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FLOP: Electric Generation System Reliability Model

Dr. Andrés Ramos Galán

Reliability measures of an electric power system are typically used for taking generation expansion planning decisions in the long term. In deregulated markets this centralized planning mechanism has been substituted by a market that clears bids and long term reserve needs and determines the revenues for the assigned bids.

The objective of the Electric System Reliability Model (FLOP) is to compute these indexes:

  • Expected Energy Non Served (EENS)
  • Loss Of Load Probability (LOLP)

for a prespecified set of periods in which the year is divided. It uses discrete convolution method.

The input data for the model are:

  • Demand in each period, modelled as a chronological or load-duration curve.
  • Generating units in each period: effective output in peak hours and availability rate. Generators are dispatched to supply demand in increasing merit order given a price ladder (although this order is irrelevant for reliability purposes). Price has only informative effects while a reserve bid system isn't available.

The results given by the model:

  • For each period value of EENS, LOLP and price (only for the clearing process of power reserve bids)
  • Graphs of EENS and LOLP evolution along the time
  • Graph of resulting price in each period

The model is being used by the Centro Nacional de Despacho (CND) of the Empresa de Transmisión Eléctrica S.A. (ETESA) in Panamá.

Model summary leaflet

Generation reliability models October 2009

A.Ramos Modelos de explotación en sistemas eléctricos de potencia IIT-93-059 Diciembre 1992

A.Ramos, J. Arrojo Storage Plants Energy Optimization in Probabilistic Production Cost Models IIT-91-008 January 1991

This model is in the Technology Portfolio, Technical Services and R&D Networks. Energy of the Regional Government of Madrid.