38th Young Energy Economists & Engineers Seminar - YEEES Delft 2026, Delft (Netherlands). 29-30 October 2026
Summary:
ReFuelEU Aviation and FuelEU Maritime set decarbonization targets for the aviation and maritime sectors. Both require renewable fuels, and the eligible biofuels come from the same wastes and residues, so both obligations target the same feedstock base. How that base is split between them is an open question, and the answer depends on the distinct obligations and penalties that each regulation sets. Existing studies merge the two sectors into a single demand for liquid fuels, treat them independently, or leave out the conversion routes that shape the feedstock each sector requires, so none assesses this competition under such regulatory asymmetries. This paper evaluates how the asymmetric design of regulatory incentives between two sectors competing for the same scarce feedstock affects its allocation and the conversion pathways selected. A linear optimization model minimizes the unmet aviation and maritime biofuel demand, weighted by the penalty each regulation sets for non-compliance, across three feedstock families and ten conversion routes, for Spain in 2030, 2040 and 2050 over nine demand scenarios. Competition concentrates in lignocellulosic biomass, which Fischer-Tropsch would turn into jet fuel and pyrolysis or methanol synthesis into marine fuel, and in eligible lipids, which may become HEFA for aircraft or biodiesel for ships. Domestic feedstock falls short in seven of nine scenarios in 2040 and in all of them in 2050, with supply gaps of 8 to 74 TWh. Which sector fails to comply depends on the relative penalties: lignocellulosic biomass shifts from shipping to aviation as soon as the aviation penalty exceeds the maritime one, and a fivefold fine multiplier, the maximum set under Spanish regulation, would shift the biomass used for methanol synthesis as well. In any case, 8 to 16 TWh of aviation fuel in 2050 may not be met from domestic feedstock. How domestic feedstock is used across sectors is thus determined by how each Member State prices non-compliance with the ReFuelEU Aviation mandate.
Spanish layman's summary:
Los biocombustibles para ReFuelEU Aviation y FuelEU Maritime proceden de la misma biomasa. Con un modelo de optimización aplicado a España, se evalúa cómo la asimetría de incentivos de ambas normas condiciona su reparto y las rutas de conversión. Qué sector incumple depende de qué sanción pesa más.
English layman's summary:
Biofuels for ReFuelEU Aviation and FuelEU Maritime come from the same biomass. With an optimization model applied to Spain, we show how the asymmetric incentives of both mandates shape its allocation and the conversion routes used. Which sector fails to comply depends on the relative penalties.
Keywords: Sustainable aviation fuel; maritime transport; sustainable fuels; biomass allocation; conversion routes; fuel mandates; linear programming
Publication date: 29-Oct-2026.
Citation:
L.A. Angulo Quentasi, M. Pérez-Bravo, R. Cossent, "How asymmetric aviation and maritime fuel mandates shape the use of a shared biomass base: a route-level analysis", presented at 38th Young Energy Economists & Engineers Seminar - YEEES Delft 2026, Delft, Netherlands, 29-30 October 2026
IIT-26-315C
