36th Australasian Universities Power Engineering Conference - AUPEC 2026, Hobart (Australia). 02-06 November 2026
Summary:
Power-system planning and operation with voltagesource-converter-based high-voltage direct-current (VSC-HVDC) integration are commonly assessed using conventional measures such as losses, voltage deviation, and congestion. Here, predictability refers to the extent to which network variables remain concentrated around their expected values under uncertainty, and is quantified through the relative dispersion of bus-voltage magnitudes and branch apparent-power flows. This paper investigates how VSC-HVDC location, control mode, and operating set-points affect AC-network predictability under wind and load uncertainties.
The IEEE 39-bus system is evaluated using 1000 common Latin-hypercube scenarios, considering two- and three-terminal configurations, three locations, seven transfer levels, and two control modes. Under constant-reactive-power control, voltage predictability at 600MWranges from a 67% degradation to a 9% improvement. Under AC-voltage control, voltage predictability improves by 18% to 38% across all locations and transfer
levels, while branch-flow predictability changes only marginally. Predictability, therefore, provides complementary information for hybrid AC/DC planning.
Spanish layman's summary:
Este trabajo analiza cómo la ubicación, el modo de control y los puntos de operación de VSC-HVDC afectan a la predictibilidad de las tensiones y los flujos de potencia del sistema eléctrico AC ante incertidumbres de viento y demanda, aportando información complementaria a las métricas convencionales de planificación.
English layman's summary:
This work examines how VSC-HVDC location, control mode, and operating set-points affect the predictability of AC power-system voltages and power flows under wind and load uncertainty, providing information that complements conventional planning metrics.
Keywords: Hybrid AC/DC power systems, Latin hypercube sampling, predictability, uncertainty quantification, VSC-HVDC.
Publication date: 02-Nov-2026.
Citation:
S. Rezaeian-Marjani, L. Sigrist, A. García-Cerrada, "Impact of VSC-HVDC Location, Control Mode, and Operating Set-Points on AC-Network Predictability under Wind and Load Uncertainties", presented at 36th Australasian Universities Power Engineering Conference - AUPEC 2026, Hobart, Australia, 02-06 November 2026
IIT-26-297C
