The inexhaustible availability of solar irradiance and wind speed makes these natural resources major contributors to a CO2 neutral energy system. Since these natural resources interact with temperatures, this paper aims at determining their correlation with temperature derived heating and cooling degree-hours (HDH and CDH) historically and based on climate projections towards 2100. The case study investigates demand and supply balancing requirements in three European climate regions Spain, Austria and northern Europe. Two approaches are used to analyse the hourly correlation on different time scales and the relationship of daily and weekly totals assuming storage. Understanding these interrelations provides a basis for appropriate planning and forecasting in smart energy systems. While solar irradiance does correlate strongly with CDH on hourly basis, achieving 0.80 in Spanish locations and 0.60 in Austria, the relation between wind speed and heating demand is more complex only reaching moderate (0.40–0.59) correlation with monthly storage in all regions. The relationship between solar irradiance and heating needs, by contrast, seems promising in central and southern Europe by applying daily storage to reach moderate to strong (0.40–0.79) results. While HDH will lose importance mostly in Madrid, but also in Vienna and Stockholm, CDH will increase. The implications for final energy demand, however, require consideration of additional parameters, such as energy efficiency measures on building insulation. Smart energy systems, therefore, should embrace the positive correlation between solar irradiance and CDH, and account for at least monthly storage of potential wind power to use VRE for heating and cooling efficiently.
Palabras Clave: Variable renewable energy; Renewable energy systems; Storage; Correlation; Solar radiation; Wind speed; Heating degree days; Cooling degree days; Variability; Climate change
Referencia DOI: 10.1016/j.segy.2021.100038
Publicado en papel: Agosto 2021.
Publicado on-line: Junio 2021.
J. Ramsebner, P. Linares, R. Haas. Estimating storage needs for renewables in Europe: the correlation between renewable energy sources and heating and cooling demand. Smart Energy. Vol. 3, pp. 100038-1 - 100038-18, Agosto 2021. [Online: Junio 2021]