As it is well known, generation plants availability has a significant impact on the total energy production injected into a power system. This means that a sensible generating system model should be able to represent the availability uncertainty to obtain better solutions than deterministic approaches. In this paper possibility distributions have been used to model the uncertainty of the generation plants availability, when forced outages are presented during their operation. To solve the new possibilistic formulation that results, the main resolution approaches in the literature have been applied, leading always to equivalent but larger crisp systems that can be solved with commercial resolution softwares. A real case study of the current Spanish electricity market is used to analyze the main differences of these approaches on the total generated power and profits.
Palabras clave: Plant availability, installed capacity, power system reliability, electricity market, fuzzy constraints, fuzzy programming, possibility theory
Second International Conference on Soft Methods in Probability and Statistics (SMPS), pp. 685-692, Oviedo, Asturias (España). 02 septiembre 2004
Fecha de publicación: septiembre 2004.
F.A. Campos, J. Villar, Medium-Term electricity generation with fuzzy availability, Second International Conference on Soft Methods in Probability and Statistics (SMPS), pp. 685-692. ISBN: 978-3-540-22264-4, Oviedo, España, 02-04 Septiembre 2004