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A multidisciplinary approach to model long-term investments in electricity generation: Combining system dynamics, credit risk theory and game theory

J.J. Sánchez, J. Barquín, E. Centeno, A. López-Peña

IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting - IEEE PES GM 2008, Pittsburgh (Estados Unidos de América). 20-24 julio 2008


Resumen:

This paper provides a new multidisciplinary approach to model long-term planning of electricity generation. The aim of this approach is to improve several aspects of system-dynamics based models in the literature in terms of companiespsila differentiation in imperfect markets. To do this, system dynamics is combined with credit risk theory and game theory. Particularly, this paper presents in detail the part of the model which focuses on companiespsila differentiation when calculating the expected profitability of possible new investments. This approach can be used as a tool to analyse long-term dynamics of electricity markets and the way the new generation capacity enters into these markets under different hypothesis of companiespsila strategies and regulatory policies. A case study based in the Spanish market to show the potential of this approach is presented.


Palabras clave: Electricity Markets , System Dynamics , Credit Risk Theory , Game Theory , Generation Expansion Planning


DOI: DOI icon https://doi.org/10.1109/PES.2008.4596452

Fecha de publicación: julio 2008.



Cita:
Sánchez, J.J., Barquín, J., Centeno, E., López-Peña, A., A multidisciplinary approach to model long-term investments in electricity generation: Combining system dynamics, credit risk theory and game theory, IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting - IEEE PES GM 2008, Pittsburgh (Estados Unidos de América). 20-24 julio 2008.


    Líneas de investigación:
  • *Análisis de estrategia a largo plazo

IIT-08-126C

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