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Scenarios for DG/RES energy futures on case study, country and European level

W. Prüggler , C. Obersteiner , K. Zach , H. Auer , L. Olmos , R. Cossent , J. de Joode , F. Nieuwenhout , H. Jacobsen , S. Ropenus , S.T. Schröder , S. Bofinger , N. Gerhardt , J. Poot , M. Bongaerts , D. Trebolle , B. Doersam

The recently observed increase in renewable energy sources/distributed generation (RES/DG) in the European electricity system is most likely to continue or even increase its growth rate in the future. Distributed Generation (DG) as one core focus of the IMPROGRES project is mainly meant to be connected to distribution grid areas. Thus, Work Package 3 of the project aims at deriving scenarios for DG/RES energy futures on case study, country and European level in order to provide a basis for further calculations on the economic impact of DG on overall system costs in a latter stage of the project (compare IMPROGRES project Report D5). The time horizon analysed therefore is set between 2005 and 2030 in order to calibrate the model according to historic developments with respect to possible future evolvements. Countries and case study regions where the installation of additional DG/RES is analysed are located in the Netherlands, Germany and Spain, These areas have different characteristics in terms of already existing load and the type of generation installed whereas the penetration levels evaluated can vary significantly. For derivation of future DG/RES scenarios the simulation software GreenNet has been updated for specific needs of the IMPROGRES project. GreenNet has been developed within the Fifth Framework project GreenNet (EU-15) and has recently been extended in the EIE project GreenNet ? EU27 to the EU-27 region and, finally, the Western Balkan region was included in the EIE project GreenNet -Incentives in 2009 (finally covering the major 35 European countries). The model is capable to derive future DG/RES development scenarios on an aggregated basis (e.g. EU27 region as a whole) as well as on disaggregated country (e.g. The Netherlands) or even case specific level (e.g. case study region in Spain). [?]


Proyecto del IIT: IMPROGRES (IMPROGRES)

Entidad Financiadora: Comisión Europea. Intelligent Energy-Europe (IEE)

01/07/2009

IIT-09-090I

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