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A Monte Carlo approach to represent uncertainty in the European electricity market

A. Orgaz, A. Bello, J. Reneses

Power systems are always subject to uncertainties. When considering multiple areas, this uncertainty affects the state of the interconnections and, as a result, influences the behavior of market agents. This paper proposes a highperforming methodology to incorporate market power in a multi-area electricity market model considering medium-term uncertainties. To do so, it employs a Monte Carlo simulation of a market equilibrium model with a comprehensive representation of the system. To achieve a suitable performance with this procedure, a massive number of simulations must be carried out, making the problem computationally intensive. The efficiency of the methodology proposed is able to decrease the size of the deterministic model under non-perfect competition by reducing the possible network configurations. This makes the program computationally tractable, and valuable for market agents to integrate in the decision-making process. Finally, the methodology has been applied to an illustrative case of the European electricity market.

Keywords: Market Equilibrium, Monte Carlo simulation, Multi-area electricity system, Optimization Models, Uncertainties

Publicado: junio 2018.

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