This paper proposes a methodology to determine secure operation policies of hydro systems through a contingency scenario analysis in order to prevent the risk of spillage or shortage due to inflows different to those of the nominal case. The methodology is applied within a general mid-term hydro scheduling model used to find optimal and feasible schedules of cascaded reservoirs and hydro plants. The operation criterion is to maximize the expected income of a hydro generator but minimizing the possible damaging effects of the contingency scenarios considered. In order to obtain a set of realistic scenarios which considers the seasonal and spatial correlations of inflows, the contingency scenarios are created and chosen following a pattern and clustering analysis based on the statistical analysis of historical data. An example case is presented in order to illustrate the essential features of the proposed methodology.
Palabras clave: Hydro scheduling, flood, drought, spillage management, optimization, mid-term reservoir management
9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS'06), Estocolmo (Suecia). 11 junio 2006
Fecha de publicación: junio 2006.
R. Moraga, J. García-González, S. Nogales, M. Arteseros, A contingency analysis for managing the risk of water spillage or shortage in a mid-term hydro scheduling model, 9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS'06). ISBN: 978-91-7178-585-5, Estocolmo, Suecia, 11-15 Junio 2006