Ir arriba
Informacion del artículo en conferencia

Stochastic model of residual demand curves with decision trees.

A. Ugedo, E. Lobato, Á. Franco, L. Rouco, J. Fernández-Caro, J. de Benito, J. Chofre Álvarez, J. de la Hoz-Ardiz

Generating firms operating in deregulated markets need strategic bidding procedures to maximize their expected profits. In some electricity markets, due to the number and size of the participants, the clearing price may be affected by the production supplied to the market. To model this effect, the residual demand curve (RDC) is considered. This paper proposes a methodology based on decision trees to estimate the probabilistic RDC that a generating agent faces in each hourly period of the market. The method explains the behavior of the RDC patterns (obtained through clustering techniques) by a set of factors (linear combinations of explanatory variables) determined by the statistical technique factor analysis. A decision tree is built to compute the probability of each RDC pattern, taking as input estimations of the numerical value of the explanatory factors. In addition, the paper describes the stochastic programming formulation of the RDC patterns to obtain optimal bidding curves. The methodology proposed is illustrated with a case study applied to the first intradaily market of the Spanish electricity market.


Palabras clave: Competitive electricity market, strategic bidding, clustering, factor analysis, decision trees.

2003 PES General Meeting, Toronto, Ontario (Canadá). 14-18 Julio 2003

DOI: DOI icon 10.1109/PES.2003.1270443    

Fecha de publicación: julio 2003.



Cita:
A. Ugedo, E. Lobato, Á. Franco, L. Rouco, J. Fernández-Caro, J. de Benito, J. Chofre Álvarez, J. de la Hoz-Ardiz, Stochastic model of residual demand curves with decision trees, 2003 PES General Meeting. ISBN: 0-7803-7989-6, Toronto, Canadá, 14-18 Julio 2003


    Líneas de investigación:

IIT-03-044A

pdf Solicitar el artículo completo a los autores



Aviso legal  |  Política de cookies |  Política de Privacidad

© Universidad Pontificia Comillas, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería - ICAI, Instituto de Investigación Tecnológica

Calle de Santa Cruz de Marcenado, 26 - 28015 Madrid, España - Tel: (+34) 91 5422 800